No, I don't play golf.

Portfolio Management

Bi-Directional Regression Analysis Investment Network

No, I don't play golf.

Trading Systems - System Trading Trading Stocks and Financial/Commodity Futures with Mechanical Trading Systems.

Unlike the web-address suggests, you won't find any "tips" here.
"t.i.p.s." is a motivated acronym and stands for "trading is position sizing".
Read more on why the strange "when in trouble double" mentality fails.

When you are trading Stocks or Financial/Commodity Futures your ability to predict is not important at all. It's how you react to market action that counts.
I prefer to concentrate on how I will react to price action rather than desiring to predict it. Reacting is a business decision, predicting is an ego play. Your ego tells you to win most of the time (which is impossible) and prevents you from cutting your losses short and letting your profits run. Even if your buy/sell signals come from a flip of a coin (which is a 50/50 system) you should still make money trading as long as you risk only a small percentage (max. 2%, better: 1%) on each trade. Of course your system must have a x to 1 win/loss ratio (x >= 2), i.e. a positive mathematical expectation.

Unless a company which is in the xy industry and temporarily suffers from structural setbacks, you can always reallocate your money where it generates the highest return with the appropriate amount of risk per trade for the portfolio.
Losses tell you that something is wrong. You are in the only business worldwide where you can get rid of a bad asset in a few seconds.
So be smart, take advantage out of this fact and exit a bad position with a small loss!

The exit strategy comes down to a single question: "Should I stay or should I go?". Unlike the song
"Only the good die young" by Billy Joel we are in a business where "Only the bad die young..."

And: don't worry too much about entry methods (initiation methods). The exit decision (liquidation method) should contain far more complexity then the entry decision and has a much bigger impact on your final result.



The desire to be right

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Money Management


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German-speaking readers...
   (deutsch-sprachige Leser)
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Biographical Information

My research is not published on a regular basis. The only article which is available is "On the Significance of the Greek Variables in Options Pricing" and has been published in "Computer Assisted Financial Decisions" (Service Fachverlag, Wien 1993, Hrsg.: Casey, Loistl, Schneider, ISBN 3-85428-230-3), which is a survey about the sensitivity of options to changes in market conditions. The Greek Variables describe how the put or call option will react to a normalized change in the underlying stock, commodity or other financial instrument. The most common variables are Delta, Gamma, Theta, and Vega.

I won't go into this any further since I am currently not trading/researching options anymore. The reason is simple: it is much harder to get reliable historical data/quotes on options so I can't test them on a historical basis as I do before I invest.

A lot of research has been my core activity for the last few years, I have also been quite successful in trading (for a living) stocks during that time.

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    No, I don't play golf.


B.R.A.I.N. ("Bi-Directional Regression Analysis Investment Network") is a fully mechanical Trading System for currencies, which is trading the British Pound, German Mark, Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen against the US-Dollar.
Regression Analysis is the main trend indicator used in the program to determine when price action is considered to be a trend (see a variation in "Regression Trendlines" in the download-area).
But - keep in mind:
Much more important is Risk- and Money Management, not the indicator abracadabra. It's not signal accuracy but Money Management what makes the difference between failure and success.

Click on the following links to see the results:

  B.R.A.I.N. Results 1
B.R.A.I.N. Results 2
B.R.A.I.N. Results 3
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Cantonese* Proverb
*Chinese dialect

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Contact Information

When you click on my e-mail address below "HP-Trading:" will be entered automatically as 'Subject'. You may complete the 'Subject', please do not delete it.





No, I don't play golf.

Postal Address:      
   Thomas Pflügl
   Lehen 84
   A-4293 Gutauflower.jpg (1270 Byte)
    Bosch GSM 909 DUAL S Multiband  
Cell Phone:    
 +43 664-5237090
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Commodity Trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures markets. Do not risk any money you can not afford to lose.
This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell commodity interests. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.


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© Copyright:
Thomas Pflügl 1998 - 2015

Last updated: Juni 16, 2015
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